下届大选Winston Peters将带领优先党重新进入新西兰国会。他将成为右派多数票执政的造王者。
Winston Peters 上届大选，选民抛弃Judith Collins领导的国家党，使工党赢得前所未有的彻底胜利，那一次政治钟摆带动了众多选民，现在这钟摆又摆离政府，力图将毛利族裔提升到高于所有其他族裔的政府，而这个政府又被认为无法采取经济复苏举措来减轻因过度应用新冠肺炎疫情控制措施而造成的损害。 问题是，群众在政治气氛中摇摆，越来越多人不知所措！ 在我看来，Christopher Luxon 精通摇摆现象。工党顽固不化的分裂种族主义议程等待着被淘汰，Christopher Luxon对此心中有数。还有国家党内的议论，Luxon 也以他的方式处理。 Christopher Luxon Sam Uffindell可能是后者的一个例子，但更危险的因素是我认为这是一个缺乏民主选择标准的乱伦行政的帮派，这些帮派很危险地接近“唤醒wokeness”。 David Carter爵士在我看来是这个帮派造成的伤亡。 国家党对毛利问题缺乏明确承诺，没有明确表示其意图，这是行动党David Seymour崛起的一个主要原因，而David Seymour似乎确实承认毛利人分离主义现在是一个优先政治课题。 Brooke van Velden 对 Seymour来说，幸运的是，他的同事Brooke van Velden是一位非常有能力的女副手，因为仅仅从持续表现不佳的国家党而获得选票和支持率，不太可能在一个根深蒂固的忠实追随者中巩固。 这为Winston Peters留下了机会。 大量尚未决定的选票等人来争取。不满的工党选民，他们不会把票投给国家党或绿党，正如大量的传统保守派国家党选民，他们对新西兰的毛利化充满敌意，他们还记得Roger Douglas。 与他一样，Winston也是一个幸存者，主要凭借他的不屈不挠的个性来实现这一结果。然而，在我看来，他在这场比赛中最大的弱点是Shane Jones。 如果Shane作为北部毛利选区的候选人参选（我认为他有合理的机会胜选） ，那么Jones将不得不采取支持毛利人的立场（他在上次选举之前就采取了这一立场，在我看来，他从一个领先的位置崩溃了） ，这立即损害了Winston可能对保守的白人选民所说的关于法律面前人人平等的话的完整性--不论种族、信仰、肤色、宗教和信仰如何。 我最近与一优先党元老进行了讨论（他向我保证已退出党务） ，强调优先党应该只竞选党票。也许他说的是对的，而且历史也倾向于支持这一观点，Winston最好注意这个非常聪明的政治战略家。 我和Winston一起上学。我在国会期间，我们是朋友，在国会任职9年，我担任过他的初级产业部顾问3年。初级产业部的渔业角色牵涉到 小龙虾事件（Scampi Affair), Winston和我自从那事件后分道扬镳。我们不再是好朋友了。 我决定把票投给行动党因为Brooke van Velden政治新星的吸引力。 Ross Meurant 作者：Ross Meurant，曾任三届国会议员，大学政治学毕业；前负责奥克兰情报活动的警察检查员；目前为非洲国家名誉领事；俄罗斯在新西兰拥有的商业资产的受托人兼首席执行官，以及管理国际商业事务。 翻译：苏文德 www.davidsohtranslations.com 英文原文： POLITICAL PREDICTION Rt Hon Winston Peters, will lead NZ First to a List Party re-entry to New Zealand parliament next General Elections. And he will be once again: King Maker – of the centre right majority. The political pendulum which carried a massive base of voters deserting National under the leadership of Hon Judith Collins, to delivering an unprecedented outright victory to Labour, now gains momentum as it swings away from a government which strives to elevate one ethnic group above all others and which is exposed as incapable of economic recover initiatives to mitigate the damage it caused by excessive application of COVID controls. Trouble is, the masses swinging through the political atmosphere, are increasingly unsure of where to jump off! Christopher Luxon, in my view, emerges as one who excels in vacillation. Whether it be how to deal with the divisive racist agenda Labour seeks to entrench before they are bowled out or how to put his stamp on internal party shenanigans. Sam Uffindell may be one example of the latter but a more deleterious element is what I identify as an incestuous administration cabal devoid of democratic selection standards and which loiters perilously close to “wokeness”. Rt Hon Sir David Carter seems to me to have been a casualty of this cabal. This lack of unequivocal commitment clearly stated intentions by National, has been a major contributor to the rise of ACT’s David Seymour – who does appear to have recognised that Maori separatism is now a priority political issue. Fortunately for Mr Seymour, he has as his second in command a very capable female in Brooke van Velden, because gaining votes and poll elevation only as a result of a persistently underperforming National party, is unlikely to be cementing in an entrenched loyal following. Which leaves open the field of play for Winston Peters. A large catchment of undecided vote is there for the taking. Disgruntled Labour voters who won’t vote National or Green and an equally large catchment of traditional conservative National voters, who are hostile on the Maorification of New Zealand and who remember Roger Douglas. Like him or loath him, Winston is a survivor and achieves this outcome largely on the strength of his indomitable personality. His greatest weakness in this race however, in my view, is Shane Jones. If Shane runs as a candidate for the Northern Maori constituency (which I reckon he would have a reasonable chance of securing), a pro Maori stance Jones would have to adopt (and which he did immediately prior to the last election which in turn saw him crash from what appeared to me to be a strong lead), immediately compromises the integrity of anything Winston might be saying to the conservative white voter, about equality for all before the law – irrespective of race, creed, colour, religion, beliefs. A recent discussion I had with an original instigator of NZ First (but who assures me is no longer involved), emphatically insisted that NZ First is a List only party. If this person is right, and history tends to support this view, Winston might do well to take heed of this very astute political strategist. Disclosure: I went to school with Winston. During my time in parliament, we were mates and post my 9 years in the House I served 3 years as his primary industries adviser. The fishing industry component of that role culminating in the Scamp Affair, saw Winston and me – part company. We are no longer mates. I will vote ACT on the appeal of Brooke van Velden as a rising star. Ross Meurant, graduate in politics both at university and as a Member of Parliament; formerly police inspector in charge of Auckland spies & V.I.P. security; currently Honorary Consul for an African state, Trustee and CEO of Russian owned commercial assets in New Zealand and has international business interest. |
